Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,723$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(446 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,650.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,650.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $502$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(86.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{467.9}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(467.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,543$ on 2020-05-10

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334.4}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(334.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.25 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.7}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 11.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-10

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $991$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(49.8 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,512.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,512.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.89 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(39.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $814$ on 2020-05-10

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,400$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(360 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,489.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 62.1)}}\) (asimptote \(21,489.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $525$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(51 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{636.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(636.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,800$ on 2020-05-10

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,063$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(467 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,709.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,709.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $188$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(45.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178.6}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 18.6)}}\) (asimptote \(178.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,321$ on 2020-05-10

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,579$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(257 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,080.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,080.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $114$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.71 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(316.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,000$ on 2020-05-10

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,032$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(228 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,011.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,011.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(13.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42.5}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 16.2)}}\) (asimptote \(42.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $287$ on 2020-05-10

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $661$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.45 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-10

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $543$ on 2020-05-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 70%
Tunisia recovered 64%
Djibouti recovered 57%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $821$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(276 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{739.9}{1 + 10^{-0.101 (t - 11.1)}}\) (asimptote \(739.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(66.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-05-10

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,210$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,125.0}{1 + 10^{-0.128 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,125.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-10

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $360$ on 2020-05-10